'The Vow' Promises to Take the Box Office Crown This Weekend

There's a whole lot of box-office promise in "The Vow" -- a romantic drama starring Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams on track to gross more than $30 million in North America this weekend.

Tatum stars in Sony's PG-13-rated movie as a guy whose wife emerges from a coma with no memory of their life together -- and woos her all over again.

While most box-office watchers believe "The Vow" will easily open at No. 1 the weekend leading into Valentine's Day, they are generally optimistic about everything opening this weekend:

"Safe House," Universal's R-rated thriller starring Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds is looking at a $25 million opening and Fox's 3D re-release of the 1999 "Star Wars: Episode I -- The Phantom Menace" could take $20 million.

The other movie opening wide is New Line's "Journey 2: The Mysterious Island," a PG-rated movie that's likely to open in fourth place -- but already has taken nearly $50 million overseas.

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For now, all eyes are on "The Vow." At least most eyes. And certainly most young women's eyes.

According to the research firm NRG, 69 percent of women younger than 25, and 49 percent of women older than 25 have "definite" interest in seeing "The Vow." And 83 percent of younger women and 77 percent of older ones report some awareness of the film.

That's despite less-than-spectacular reviews. Metacritic gives "The Vow" a 47, Movie Review Intelligence gives it a 42.5 and Rotten Tomatoes gives it a 36.

Sony projects the movie will take somewhere in the mid-to-high $20 millions, but less conservative outside box-office watchers expect it will gross at least $30 million.

The movie, which Spyglass co-financed with Screen Gems and cost about $30 million to make, opens in 2,958 locations.

Universal's "Safe House," an R-rated thriller starring Denzel Washington, Ryan Reynolds and Vera Farmiga, is widely expected to take second place.

The studio expects the movie, which had a budget estimated at $85 million and was shot in South Africa, to open in the low-$20 million range -- in line with outside expectations.

"Safe House" stars Washington as a brilliant CIA agent who has gone rogue and turns up in an American embassy with a mysterious mission. Ryan Reynolds plays the agent who has to protect him. The movie is tracking especially well among older men and African Americans.

In the crowded weekend, Universal hopes that "Safe House" emerges as the consensus choice for people who don't know what else to see.